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  1. Approaches to World Order Robert Cox
  2. module - Politics - University of Exeter
  3. World Order and Unhcr's "Comprehensive" Approach to Refugees
  4. Sovereign equality versus the global military system. Two competing approaches to world order
  5. Copyright:

Protecting refugees means monitoring borders to ensure that they remain open when refugees cross them; demanding access for food and medicines needed for assistance; fighting discrimination; relieving trauma; counseling on legal procedures; deciding when to advise refugees when to return home; At times, it demands speaking out to denounce abuses and violations. Refugee protection is a set of legal instruments, operational activities and material contributions that can restore a sense of security in people in whom flight has deprived of everything -sometimes, The Refugee Convention is specific on the condition of international protection.

In international law, a refugee is someone who is outside his or her country of origin and who does not have the protection of the state. The Convention accords protection to persons who can demonstrate inability or legitimate unwillingness to avail themselves of the protection of the "home" state. International protection functions as a surrogate for the failure of a state's duty to protect its citizens. But the victims of general insecurity and oppression, and people who have not crossed international borders to seek asylum are outside the Refugee Convention's scope of protection.

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Approaches to World Order Robert Cox

In the last decade the meaning and practice of refugee protection has been transformed. The old form of protection is seen as a reactive and short-term response, while the new mode of a comprehensive international protection is characterized as being proactive and a durable solution.

It anticipates and addresses root causes of displacement with the aim to prevent, or at least reduce, the need for flight across international borders or from one's home within a state. Today, prevention and solution are keywords in UNHCR' s lexicon of protection and are integral aspects of the organization's humanitarian agenda.

UNHCR argues that preventive protection contributes to the actualization of human security by allowing refugee to enjoys two new rights: the right to remain and the right to return. Refugees have a right to remain in their countries of origins and not to be displaced because humanitarian assistance cannot heal the wounds suffered by exile. The notion of home stirs up images of acceptance and belonging. It is a potent contrast to the experience of displacement. So powerful is the homeland attachment that it is invoked again in the endorsement of repatriation as durable solution.

Sadako Ogata pronounces that. In speaking of the right to "remain", I mean the basic right of the individual not to be forced into exile, The right to remain is implicit in the right to leave one's country and to return I know that the international protection that my office, The generosity of asylum countries cannot fully replace the loss of a homeland or relieve the pain of exile. According the former High Commissioner, UNHCR's protection mandate is threefold: right to asylum, right to return and right to remain The right to remain emphasizes the right of the individual not to be displaced.

In order to satisfy this aspect of human security UNHCR must turn its attention to the states where potentially refugee-generating situations are taking place. At the 51st Executive Committee session, various in-country activities such as establishing refugee security in camps, generating the conditions for voluntary repatriation, monitoring returnees, and designing post-conflict reconstruction projects were classified as protection activities These activities had been widely promoted in previous Executive Committee sessions but at this session the agency outlined its intention to broaden the scope of protection by linking international human rights law and international humanitarian law with international refugee law.

In its new humanitarian agenda, UNHCR has identified human rights abuses as the fundamental root cause of displacement. At the 49th Session of the agency's Executive Committee Meeting, the message is that the refugee experience, in all its stages, is linked closely to the degree of respect accorded by states to human rights and fundamental freedoms The common examples used to demonstrate the connection between systematic violation of rights and displacement are ethnic conflicts where national governments do not recognize the rights of certain ethnic or religious groups by implementing discriminatory and harmful policies.

In such circumstances the task is to prevent such abuses by encouraging the development of conflict prevention mechanisms such as minority protection and an early-warning system consisting of activities like human rights monitoring that can identify the danger signals, gathers and analyses observations. However, the art of prediction is difficult to master and the events in Rwanda and Kosovo have exposed the limitations. While a legal framework for protecting specifically IDPs has yet to emerge, UN agencies and numerous NGOs have often invoked human rights law and prevention as the grounds for involvement in the issue After all, prevention is the most effective form of protection for people in danger of becoming refugees UNHCR explains its commitment to assisting and protecting IDPs through pointing out the similarity between them and refugees in terms of the causes and consequences of their displacement and humanitarian needs The incorporation of IDPs increases the number of "persons of concerns" under its protection dramatically and has the effect of reinforcing the importance of preventive measures.

UNHCR's commitment to IDPs can also be interpreted as a response to the pressure from industrialized donor countries to formulate a policy that limits the numbers of refugees seeking asylum. Many donor states are deploying preventive measures and in-country programs as barriers to asylum and urging UN agencies, like UNHCR to assist displaced people "at home" The "challenge of protection" is inextricably linked to the decline in asylum opportunities and the increase refugee numbers. In-country assistance has the effect of preventing and containing the population movements across international borders.

It keeps would-be asylum seekers at a distance, As Jennifer Hyndman suggests, the idea of preventive protection "give rise to a new set of political spaces and management practices for forcibly displaced people" The preferred solution is to prevent refugees and asylum seekers from arriving at their borders. Although not a form of preventive protection nor a post-Cold War invention, temporary protection deserve a mention because increasingly, temporary protection is seen as a pragmatic tool for meeting the immediate needs of refugees and the interests of states.

Temporary protection is a compromise that acknowledges the rights of states to control conditions of entry by aliens and provides protection for people fleeing from persecution. It offers interim protection until the risks in the country of origin subside or no longer exist.. UNHCR maintains that temporary protection meets the principle of international protection on the grounds that it is part of a comprehensive program of prevention and solution65 But the extent to which temporary protection address the protection needs of asylum seekers is disputable.

As Barutciski argues, experience in the EU shows that once temporary protection no longer applies, few gain access to the refugee determination process and even fewer gain refugee status But given that Western states even have misgivings about temporary protection due to the fear of over-stayers and the difficulties of deportation, internal-preventive protection seems to provide a solution to the needs of states and refugees.

One can argue that internal assistance is better than none at all. Preventive protection deals with the human security issue of refugees and relieves the pressure on asylum. One can also suggest that it is a creative solution to the types of mass displacement that have occurred in the past decade, or which cannot be resolved solely by providing protection in countries of asylum.

Such propositions play down the wider implications of this strategy for humanitarianism and international order. This conception of an international order is grounded on a belief that a society of sovereign states provides the preconditions for the attainment of human security and human rights. Preventive protection, however, reinterprets the idea of sovereignty by arguing that the full recognition of a state's sovereignty only comes with the full recognition of human rights for the citizen-population within its territory.

Since it is rogue governments' incapacity to exercise their authority in a responsible and effective manner that threatens international order, the focus shifts from the issue of protection in asylum states to the conditions within refugee generating states. There is a growing acceptance among governments, international organizations and NGOs that the domestic affairs of states are subjects of legitimate international concern In extreme circumstances the "international community" has a duty to militarily intervene in order to address situations of extreme human suffering.

This raises questions about the value of sovereignty and the consequences of its repeated subversion -usually by powerful states. In practice, sovereignty has always been contextual, but the introduction of preventive strategies by UNHCR -endorsed by some states -has the potential to make conditional sovereignty an international norm. The danger, as I have mentioned before, lies in the politicization and manipulation of humanitarian needs for political purposes.

Such a development will also add to a growing skepticism about the objectives of humanitarianism and undermine UNHCR's credibility as an impartial humanitarian agency. UNHCR' s concern for the conditions in countries of origin is also the result of its reconceptualization of durable solution for refugees.

Within its comprehensive agenda, solution works alongside preventive protection to minimize the need for flight and maximize return. From the three traditional accepted forms of durable solutions: integration in the asylum state, third country resettlement, and repatriation to the country of origin, UNHCR is promoting repatriation as the most desirable solution As part of its effort to promote and consolidate voluntary repatriation and to prevent new displacement, UNHCR's activities in countries of origins have expanded very rapidly in the last few years.

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In the context of a new solution-oriented and preventive strategy, the Office has sought to play a more active role in ensuring that repatriation is a truly durable solution by extending assistance to refugees who have returned to their own country and monitoring their welfare It is likely that UNHCR's activities in countries of origin will continue as international efforts are increasingly focused on addressing conditions which lead to refugee flows and promoting conditions conducive to lasting and safe return The above excerpt from UNHCR's Executive Committee gives a clear indication of the deeply implicated relationship between prevention, protection, and solution.

It is also clear on the character of durable solution and the organization's self-appointed tasks. The organization's handbook on voluntary repatriation unequivocally defines repatriation as international protection The "repatriation. Each process is necessary for the refugee go "home" and stay there. Notwithstanding the kind of protection possible through "the repatriation solution", the normalization of repatriation undermines the principles of non-refoulement and the right to seek asylum, and reduces the demand for third country resettlement.

Indeed, the emphasis on repatriation acts like a self-fulfilling prophecy; it confirms the belief that third country resettlement is almost impossible and integration is unlikely for most refugees. If such are the circumstances, then, repatriation is preferable to a life in limbo. The representation of refugees as a figure of lack and loss gives a distinctive social and psychological meaning to "return". In effect, the primacy of this durable solution has narrowed the range of protection and solution options opened to those who fled persecution.

The agency's commitment to end the refugee cycle means that repatriation, as a permanent solution, goes beyond the activity of return It seeks to continue to be active in post-conflict or high-risk countries to ensure the political and economic situation will not deteriorate to an extent that the population is compelled to flee again.

It invests in humanitarian assistance and long-term development projects with the aim to "help rebuild shattered infrastructure and rekindle the economic life of the community" The agency clearly sees a role for itself in peace-building, post-conflict reconstruction and reconciliation initiatives Development programs hold the key to the success of repatriation. They concentrate on the root causes of displacement, thus eliminating if not the need for people to leave their country.

It is an important practice in the repatriation solution and preventive protection. Ostensibly, the extension of activities after repatriation suggests that UNHCR is responsive to the changing dynamics of displacement and the needs of refugees. Again this engagement is far from innocuous. Beyond the reservations already noted above, two other issues warrant closer examination: the strategy of development and the invocation of home.

Development suggests the best of intentions, but there are embedded power relations within this mode of thought that need to be taken seriously. The historical and anthropological studies by Cowen and Shenton, Escobar, Ferguson, and Rist reveal that development ranks states and populations in a hierarchy of wealth, power, and desirable human attributes, and has as its principal focus the West's relationship. Development, Escobar argues, is a mechanism "that links forms of knowledge about the Third World with the deployment of forms of power and intervention, resulting in the mapping and production of Third World [non-Western] societies", where "individuals, governments and communities are seen as "underdeveloped" and treated as such" The discourse of development contains a "chronopolitics" that constructs an "Other" that lags behind on the one and continuous path of progress and human purpose Development programs are about more than economic wellbeing; they are concerned with the transformation of political and social institutions, of hearts and minds.

As "underdevelopment" becomes a domain of experience, strategies for dealing with the condition result in the subjection of people, who in turn subject themselves to systematic intervention. A motivation for change is the perception and the fear that one's existence is both lacking and incomplete. The word "development" is a profound reminder of what they are not UNHCR's support for development, then, implicates the organization in reproducing the specificities of Western modernity as the norm and reinforcing the assumed temporal or historical distance between the West and non-West.

It also contributes to the representation of the refugee as an object of intervention who suffers the double indignation of underdevelopment and displacement. These accomplishments suggest that the agency is fulfilling its role in global governance because development is, among other things, a strategy for administrating diverse and dispersed populations and territories. UNHCR's repatriation policy, like the strategy of preventive protection, deploys the motifs of exile and home to describe the refugee experience.

By appealing to home and belonging, the discourse of repatriation represents refugeehood as a condition of abnegation and non-recognition in a world of rootedness.

Repatriation ends the anguish of displacement -of being out of place. But the attachment to certain places and territories is taken as a given in the refugee discourse. Daniel Warner argues that if communities evolve then the meaning of return and home is more complex than the idea of repatriation suggests One may indeed long for home, but the imaginary homeland may not be a territorial one.

UNHCR's repatriation solution, however, defines home as a spatialized community of belonging. It is the homecoming that grants the refugee the definitive form of protection and human security. Over the past decade, "international protection" and "durable solution" have acquired a density of meaning and practice in the international refugee regime. This development is lamentable for a number of interconnected reasons.

Firstly, UNHCR's increasing involvement in the internal affairs of states has jeopardized its neutral and impartial character -necessary credentials if it is to be seen as nonpolitical in often already tense situations. The humanitarian principles of impartiality and neutrality empower the organization to serve its purpose of refugee protection, and lessen the danger of refugees being held hostage to political machinations and of UNHCR being accused of opportunism. Secondly, the comprehensive policy is inadvertently complicit in a system of deterrence and containment.

At a time when the restrictive and containment policies of Western states are undermining the integrity of asylum as the cornerstone of international protection and the prospects of third country resettlement as a durable solution, one has to question the wisdom of focussing so intensely on reforming the conditions in refugee-producing countries. Indeed, a consequence of UNHCR's current policy orientation is its susceptibility to accusations of being a political tool of powerful states rather than a humanitarian agency.

Finally, the reconceptualization of protection and solution to include addressing the root causes of refugee movements, and rebuilding the lives of returnees diminishes the organization's capacity to perform its core competency.

World Order and Unhcr's "Comprehensive" Approach to Refugees

UNHCR has neither the human nor financial resources to address every aspect of a humanitarian crisis, but this seems to be its ambition. The need to appear relevant in the present international environment has distorted its sense of responsibility. UNHCR increasingly invokes the discourse of rights and human security to justify the expansion of activities and the emphasis on in-country assistance.

But to protect groups from gross human rights violations within state boundaries challenges the principles of the Westphalian system of states. The tension between the values of state sovereignty and the values of human rights is inherent in the international system and this is reflected in the UN Charter. The former -not long ago -is considered to be the minimal condition for international order and co-existence. The push for a rights-based humanitarianism, however, subordinates the principle of sovereignty and non-interference.

An obvious danger lies in human rights being co-opted by actors to legitimize their policies. A less obvious danger is that the development and institutionalization of a human rights approach, accompanied by. The humanitarian operation in Kosovo points toward this unfortunate direction. Yet the substance of human rights is far from self-evident, and we can do great harm when we are blinded by moralism History provides enough evidence of the violence that repeatedly accompanies assuming possession of ultimate truth and unreflective certainty This is not about universalism versus relativism.

It is about being open to explore uncertainties. Doubt is an antidote to the ideals of truth and reason that ultimately robs people and institutions of their capacity for critical self-awareness. To call something into question, particularly its foundational status, is the beginning of the reinvigoration of that term. Humanitarianism and human rights , then, is best practiced as an agonistic process in which the very meaning of the word and its attending concepts and practices are reshaped and contested continually.

In this way we are less prone to create a world order that legitimizes acts of civilized violence upon others. Kaufman New York : Vintage, at Goodwin-Gill, "Refugee identity and protection's fading prospect", in F. Nicholson and P. Towmey eds. But the uncertainties brought on by the end of the Cold War and the meta-theoretical debate within the discipline have enabled different explanations of international relations to emerge. One is the structural aspect. About us. Editorial team. Cambridge University Press Chimni articulates an integrated Marxist approach to international law combining the insights of Marxism, socialist feminism and postcolonial theory.

The book uses IMAIL to systematically and critically examine the most influential contemporary theories of international law including new, feminist, realist and policy-oriented approaches. In doing so, it discusses a range of themes relating to the history, structure and process of international law.

The book also considers crucial world order issues and problems that the international legal process has to contend with, including the welfare of weak groups and nations, the ecological crisis and the role of human rights. This extensively revised second edition provides an invaluable, in-depth and updated review of the key literature and scholarship within this field of study. It will be of particular interest to students and scholars of international law, international relations, international politics and global studies. International Order in Social and Political Philosophy.

Sovereign equality versus the global military system. Two competing approaches to world order

Edit this record. Mark as duplicate. Find it on Scholar. Request removal from index. Revision history. This may seem ironic, but it is much more than a coincidence: The fact that Donald Trump was elected president of the United States reflects the deep-seated problems of American democracy, and his efforts to take the wrecking ball to the institutional and normative foundations of both that democracy and the liberal international order shows how closely and organically the two orders are intertwined.

Undeniably, the way Donald Trump is operating his great wrecking ball from the White House has considerable entertainment value. Yet the spectacle easily distracts attention from the damage he is causing. Take the example of the Kim-Trump summit: quite irrespective of its results and even of whether in the end it would happen or not, the way this summit was contrived and managed in the eye of the public has caused considerable damage.

While in the past, negotiations between Pyongyang and others included only one party, the North Korean leadership, which could never be trusted, now this applies to both sides. Irrespective of the hype generated by the summit and its eventual outcome, it has already caused significant damage to the regional security order in East Asia. This example illustrates how easy it is to cultivate illusions about the decay of our present, still liberal, international order.

Among the most widespread illusions are: this is a Western order, and its demise therefore is a good thing; it does not matter, anyway, so who cares? Historical justice is done. Why are those three propositions illusionary? The liberal international order indeed was a Western project at the beginning, but it became universal long ago, both formally and substantively.

Formally, its foundational documents and institutions were agreed and supported by all, not just by the West; many non-Westerners play important roles in shaping that order. Substantively, the liberal international order reflects the rise of the universal forces of science and technology. These also were European initially, but nobody would deny that they effectively have become universal forces long ago. While it is true that the liberal international order is, as we saw already, organically linked to Western models of democracy, and that the Western model now is in a deep crisis in many Western countries, that crisis is not one of democracy per se but of specific historical forms of democracy.

The idea of democratic government is universal, just as the forces of science and technology; its strengths are its respect for individual human freedom and dignity and the rule of law and its capacity for correcting political errors through learning. It may be that this democratic model of governance will not survive in the evolutionary competition with other models, but that is much too early to say.

The crisis of democracy in the West which does not affect all Western democracies but only some, and certainly does not affect those countries equally has also begun to create a backlash and mobilize corrective social forces. The second illusion is that the decay of the liberal international order will affect only the West. The operative term for this illusion in the liberal international order is: liberal, rather than: order. It rests on a second, deeper illusion—the illusion that the implications of that decay are predictable and can be controlled.

Who will suffer the consequences of the decay of the liberal international order therefore is a wide-open question; its answers are bound to surprise, most likely surprise unpleasantly. Yet that assumes that the world is undergoing a major shift in the international distribution of power from one group of countries to another group. That is certainly true, but it is only part of a much broader transmutation of power, in which both the nature and the distribution of power in the international system are undergoing far-reaching changes. The bottom line of this is not the rise of the rest, but the rise of the many and the growth of asymmetries of power in international relations.

From this perspective, power not so much shifts as it becomes dispersed: more and more actors individually are able to influence the course of history, but each of them less and less. This holds even for the most powerful entities we have seen in history, the great powers of today, such as the United States or China. With all its powers, neither the former Soviet Union nor the United States were able to pacify Afghanistan, and the regime in North Korea essentially has been able over the last two decades to dupe and manipulate all the other countries in the Six-Power-Talks quite successfully.

So much for being powerful! One implication of that complexity is vulnerability; this makes it easy to mobilize power for destructive purposes. Yet it often has become fiendishly difficult to mobilize power for constructive purposes, as this requires that all the parties with some influence through their destructive or veto power need to be either coopted or neutralized. It therefore seems much more likely that the demise of the West and the decay of the liberal international order will result not in the rise of the rest but in the spread of disorder. Be careful what you wish for!

The world is not in disarray, it is in transition. Over the past 70 years, globalization has generated enormous wealth for the Atlantic countries. In the last three decades however, Asia has managed to capture a majority share of global growth. As a result, the traditional Western guarantors of the post-World War II international order have seen their middle-classes squeezed by this development even as their elites devise means to cling to their pole position in world affairs.

First, diffusion of power—from the West to the East—is straining systems of norms and institutions that have defined the past seven decades. Powers like Russia and China see in this global rebalancing an opportunity to reduce American influence globally, and correct what they perceive to be inequitable rules. When they are re asserting their spheres of influences, they are seeking to redress the seemingly a-historic character of the extant world order.

Second, industrialized democracies are unable to respond to the challenges brought about by the rebalancing of economic power because of domestic compulsions. Coupled with technological disruptions and unfavorable demographics, the diminished share of the global economic pie feeds nationalism and populism in America and Europe. Significantly, political polarization inhibits their willingness and ability to consolidate and defend the international order created by them. The result is a slow-growing vacuum at the heart of global politics. Third, re emerging powers are staking claim to leadership in this vacuum.

China is the most prominent—though not only—country to be doing so. Economic integration, once anchored by the West, now finds a proponent in Beijing. However, unlike them, China sees little merit in conforming to the principle of free markets or to abide by the rules of the past. Instead, it seeks to advance an alternative model that is fundamentally rewiring the global institutional landscape through initiatives such as the BRI.

Others, such as India, are forging their own paths to the global high-table by seeking pathways that are less disruptive. Finally, Eurasia along with much of its maritime periphery as a geopolitical theater remains ill-defined and contested. Because no power is strong enough to impose its will upon all others—a corollary of diffused geopolitical power—a fierce multi-way tussle is underway where ad-hoc axes and convenient coalitions abound. At the end of the last millennium, John Rawls, perhaps the most important political philosopher in the U.

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All of them have rules of their own, be it a constitutional liberal democracy or an illiberal, but worthy government. Let us dwell a bit on this utopia, whose reality Rawls did not overestimate. He clearly understood the possible and natural objections to it. The point is not that an influential author invented something in which he alone wanted to believe. On the contrary, his reasoning was obviously influenced by the spirit of the era. According to Rawls, world society should consist of peoples rather than states. Liberal peoples do not wage wars, except for the sake of self-defense, and do not fight each other.

They seek agreement, including with illiberal peoples, against which no sanctions should be imposed and which should be allowed to develop the way they like. Perhaps there will come a time for the noble ideas of Rawls, and the majority of illiberal in his terminology people will become, if not liberal, then worthy, while liberal people will move even closer to their ideal. Thus, there will be no misunderstandings between them, which still happen now and then.

Yet the spirit of the times has obviously changed over the past two decades. It seems very important to me to fix this vague, indefinable circumstance. The interests of states are stable, at least in the sense that they cannot be reduced to the interests or inclinations of the people who govern them. The geopolitical situation, the correlation of forces, and long-term tendencies are not something unexpected. Although at other times the situation changes completely and the issues of rightness, justice, and dignity come to a head and there is simply no one to solve them.

We are witnessing the disappearance of the position of a privileged interpreter of events or, at least, a group of competing privileged interpreters. Historically, it is known that such situations develop extraordinarily quickly and look like sudden quarrels between friends or good partners. They may lead to wars which, in turn, alternate with periods of more or less reliable peace, ensured not only by military superiority of the winners, but also by a leading, controlling position within the new consensus.

Of course, this is not an exhaustive analysis of the problem: we are only repeating that everything or almost everything has gone wrong, that this is dangerous, that such things have already happened, and that this situation should not be reduced to a simple, one-dimensionally understood game of interests. What else? Developments over the past thirty years—the time of the rise and fall of a great idea, and the great narrative of globalization—have been very instructive in some respects, above all in a spatial sense. By the way, the idea of?? Territories are states, while states are citizens and political processes are dependent on mutual support between citizens and states.

Within the borders of states, there is the national economy, taxes are collected and distributed, and so on. Globalization means the emergence of an economy of networks and flows, a shift of the center of gravity to global centers that have complicated relations with states, the removal of numerous processes from state civil and legal control, and their transfer under the control of international bureaucratic organizations that are not responsible to anyone. At the same time, it is also a rejection of the narrative and self-evidence of the supra-state community, so evident in the previous era.

There is no language to describe other, non-state territorial entities, except for some known unions. Equally important is the matter of time. The horizon of the future has suddenly closed. What is left are situations that need to be reacted to, long-term treaties, and the expectation that some problems will be solved only in a distant future, beyond the lifetime of those who make decisions now. There is no other future, no big goals, and no condition that needs to be achieved, such as the establishment of democracy or secular rule everywhere or victory over old epidemics.

Without a new conversation about justice, the common good, and desirable transitions, one can expect nothing but egoism shown by each country. After Europeans are said to have turned their eyes away from the starry sky of Revolution to the world as it was: Europe was at least an idea grounded in physical reality, one could do something with it and respond to its challenges and complexities.

Something similar is now happening with the United States.


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Bruised and disillusioned with the idea of the West, American thinkers and decision-makers are looking for something less ideal, something they can work with. The West was an ideal point. One could approach it, but it would always recede the closer one seemed to the goal. The world is divided into two halves, separated by a civilizational barrier, but one of the halves is continuously expanding and is meant—in the ripeness of time and perhaps after a great battle—to become universal. The United Stares saw itself as leading this process, leading the West in its expansive movement.

Relations with the other half—the dark side of the earth—were always relations with a civilizational other, even when stable and peaceful.

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What we have now is different. The expansive movement came to a sudden halt, disappeared. The two halves are combined and the barrier between them collapsed. American foreign policy now deals with Europe, Russia, China, India as parts of the same system—defending its interests in a system of relations where it strives to occupy the center. The critical difference is that the system is no longer dynamic, it is not in the process of approaching an ideal state.

It is a place of conflict and contradictions, divided between different cultures and offering the biggest prizes for competition and control. Curiously, just as Europe in the nineteenth century lived in a precarious relation of distance and proximity to a powerful island-kingdom on its shores, so does Eurasia exert its appeal and attraction over the United States, a powerful state just across the sea from Maine or Alaska. In addition, the growing economic insecurity of large parts of the white population is producing approaches to international trade which risk another global economic depression.

The picture is not completely dark, though. On the other hand, such a culture has its advantages in foreign policy. If the entire U. It is also important to note that the U. Crucially, this is also true of the Pentagon, both when it comes to further counter-insurgency campaigns and to war against other great powers. Assuming that China does not push forward too recklessly in the South China Sea, the risk of great power conflict may therefore not be as great as some have feared. The biggest short-term risk is a war with Iran; because Israel may attack in the hope of provoking an Iranian counterattack against the U.

In the past, the Pentagon has acted to block such Israeli plans. It remains to be seen if it will be able to continue to do so under the Trump administration. The 19thth century thought was dominated by the ideas of fundamental conflicts of private vs public, market vs plan. That clash of ideas defined the right from the left, but the conflict itself has dissolved altogether—with the political forces it bred.

New discourses based on the basic needs of humans and nature—diversity, symbiosis—have not taken hold yet, but they may define a new left and a new right. However, now we got the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.


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The West tries to neglect it, but now it is not only Russia, China and a handful of Muslim countries but a prominent institution with India, Pakistan and very many of the 57 Muslim countries. That Cold War axis is losing dramatically in influence. We have a multipolar world now with only two states still belligerent, the United States and Israel. Also, there is terrorism, state terrorism in its wake.

But so far most of this multi-polar world has benefited from passive but peaceful coexistence. And while all take care of their part in addressing the global problems as multi-regional, the U. The United States and Russia are both too strong to lose and not strong enough to win. Much more likely it will come to peaceful coexistence. The West will have to get used to it as it got used to decolonization, but they will try to penetrate Russia with its strong capitalism.

The United States, for all kinds of reasons above all, because it is bancrupt will have to retreat to North America, its home. As for Russia, I believe it will focus on developing its enormous land mass—the envy of the West—not on expansion. How to do it is another matter. The rise of China has irrevocably changed the economic, geopolotical and strategic landscape of the world, with three-dimensional implications to the world order and stability. As we know, the first-wave industrialization, which started the process of modernization in human history, took place in Western Europe about years ago, involving less than 40 million people.

The second wave, led by the U. And now the rise of China, together with the fast development of India and the Southeast Asian countries, marks the third wave of modernization, involving over 4 billion people! However, the model of achieving modernization through industrialization, which means massive consumption of natural resources and rampant urbanization, is by no means sustainable. Should China and other Asian countries accomplish their modernizations with this industrialization-led model, the human being would be doomed.

Thus, how to find an alternative path towards modernization while sustaining our vulnerable ecosystem is a mission the world community, especially China, cannot afford to fail. It is the realization of this stern reality that nations have come together and made a collective effort to meet the challenge to our ecosystem and optimize opportunity for the development of the world, resulting in the Tokyo Protocol in and the Paris Agreement in Second, the rise of China is achieved through integrating into, rather than challenging, the existing international system.